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Elon Musk will reveal his “Master Plan 3” at Tesla’s (TSLA) highly anticipated 2023 Investor Day, in a live stream from the automaker’s Texas Gigafactory. Likely on the agenda are Musk’s plans to expand production, details about Generation 3 that could lead to cheaper cars, product updates, and ideas about sustainable energy.

Key Takeaways

  • Elon Musk to unveil his ‘Master Plan 3’ at Tesla’s Investor Day tomorrow
  • Musk is expected to talk about expansion plans to reach his ambitious goal of producing 20 million cars by 2030
  • Analysts also expect updates on the Cybertruck, deliveries for the Semi truck, Full-Self Driving capabilities and robo-taxis.
  • A Generation 3 update could create a possibility of cheaper vehicles
  • Musk is also likely to talk about a ‘path to a fully sustainable energy future for Earth’

Master Plan 3: More Gigafactories Globally?

Musk unveiled his first Master Plan in 2006, laying out his vision for building a sports car and then developing more affordable electric vehicles. The next Master Plan, in 2010, talked of solar power and self-driving cars. Almost seven years later, Musk is back with the plan’s iteration, talking about a “path to a fully sustainable energy future for Earth.”

Tesla is pushing the boundaries of its production capacity to reach Musk’s goal for it to produce 20 million cars a year by 2030. It’s an ambitious target: Tesla had an estimated installed annual capacity of about 1.9 million vehicles at the end of 2022. He said during the company’s 2022 annual meeting that it would need “roughly a dozen” gigafactories with “one-and-a-half to two million units per factory”.

After Mexican President, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador said this week that Tesla would build a gigafactory in Monterrey, expect more details tomorrow. While analysts may fret about the cost of such a rapid expansion. Canada, Indonesia, and India are said to be lobbying Tesla to host a gigafactory. A Reuters analysis showed that Tesla could spend “$400 billion or more over the next eight years to build new vehicle assembly and battery plants around the globe, and another $200 billion or more to build or buy the batteries”.

‘Generation 3’ Platform Update and Cheaper Cars?

In order to reach Tesla’s target, the automaker will likely have to introduce a cheaper model — another subject that could be a key element of tomorrow’s investor day. “While recent global price cuts have driven demand, TSLA likely needs Gen 3 to maintain its 50% delivery CAGR,” Yahoo Finance cited Wells Fargo analyst Colin Langan as writing in an investor note last week.

Investors are expecting to see an update of the Generation 3 concept with a potential model and some insight into the battery technology that would be used. “Gen 3 is expected to be $30K, so TSLA would cover ~95% of US price points; $30K EV that is as profitable as a comparable ICE model, likely drives more near-term momentum; therefore, credible profit/cost targets & launch timing are key,” Langan wrote.

Model 3/Y Redesign And Cybertruck Updates

Tesla may also announce a redesign of its Model 3 and Model Y vehicles, according to EV analytics company Teslascope. Tesla doesn’t officially refresh its vehicles, although InsideEVs shared information earlier this month about Tesla’s mysterious “Project Highland,” which is said to be a refreshed Model 3.

“The Model 3/Y will receive a handful of exterior and interior changes, including new mirrors and a Tri-band GPS, allowing Tesla to eliminate the need for various sensors, including external temperature,” Teslascope said.

Analysts are also looking for Musk to provide more details about other products. “[W]e expect a slew of updates on the product roadmap, which we believe will include Cybertruck updates and timing, Semi Truck delivery updates, 4680 battery technology and scale update,” wrote analysts at Wedbush Securities. Other areas of interest for the analysts include details about operating margin goals, annual battery production metrics, full-self driving capabilities and robo-taxis.

Analysts will also be keeping an eye on any mention of EV tax credits or the impact of the new Inflation Reduction Act.


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