First things first, what’s the deal with the rate hike? Well, investors are split on whether the Fed will implement a quarter-point hike or hit pause. The bond market gives a 65% probability to a quarter-point boost that will raise the Fed’s policy rate to 4.75%-5%. Traders have slashed the odds of a hike, but Goldman Sachs and Barclays have revised their rate predictions to no rate hike.
Now, if you’re a futures trader, you know that rate-hike forecasts can change on a dime. If Credit Suisse and First Republic struggle, we could see some volatility before Wednesday’s announcement. But let’s be real, the Fed is pretty handcuffed right now. If they increase rates one more time, it’s likely just a 25-basis point hike before they pause.
But should they even hike at all? The Fed has been tightening rates from near-zero in the past year, and it’s starting to show some damage in the economy. Inflation is high and the US jobs market is tight. Some experts are suggesting that the Fed should suspend rate rises altogether.
What’s a technical futures trader to do? Keep an eye on the price action and chart of S&P 500 emini futures, of course! Watch the next techncal analysis video for the S&P 500 emini futures, note the bullish and bearish key price levels, look at the hints the chart is giving, and consider my directional forecast.
The above opinion is not investment advice. Visit ForexLive.com for additional views.